Friday, September 16, 2011

a couple of things to take a look at. both are awesome. and the first could be even more appropriate given the second. sorry the links are not highlighted, but at this time, i do not have time to work it out. but you can highlight, copy and paste into browser. hope to see you all. cbm

Synopsis: La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.
La Niña conditions returned in August 2011 due to the strengthening of negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). With the exception of the far westernmost Niño-4 region, all of the latest weekly Niño index values were –0.5oC or less (Fig. 2). Also supporting the return of La Niña conditions was the strengthening of the below-average subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3), in response to increased upwelling and further shoaling of the thermocline across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific continued to exhibit La Niña characteristics, but remained weaker and less canonical than the wintertime atmospheric patterns. For example, convection continued to be suppressed near the Date Line, but remained south of the equator, while convection was only weakly enhanced near Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). In addition, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central tropical Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect the return of La Niña conditions.
Over the last several months many models have predicted increasingly negative SST anomalies in the Nino-3.4 region during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. However, the majority of models continue to predict ENSO-neutral conditions for this period (Fig. 6). The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) has performed quite well over the past several months (Fig. 7) capturing the recent decrease in SST anomalies. The better model performance, combined with the historical tendency for significant La Niña episodes (as in 2010-11) to be followed by relatively weaker La Niña episodes, leads to increased confidence that La Niña will persist into the winter. While it is not yet clear what the ultimate strength of this La Niña will be, La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.
Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with La Niña are expected to remain weak during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall, and to generally strengthen during the late fall and winter. During September-November 2011, there is evidence that La Niña favors an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the mid-section of the country, and an increased chance of above-average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 18 August 2011).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 October 2011. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:

Monday, September 12, 2011

ovando and more

well, the ovando farmhouse is done!! finally. now i need to find some vacation renters. for more info, look it up on VRBO or take a look at

we were able to spend a long weekend in ovando for Labor Day. and labor it was for me for the first two days. but it is finally over and by saturday afternoon, i was relaxing with multiple friends, swimming and playing ball at Browns Lake. but the real highlight, was as always on Sunday.

Sunday of Labor Day weekend is the Helmville Rodeo, for 41 years now. This is a true rodeo, with some pros, lots of families and family events, and no hype or fanfare. Just old fashioned cowboys and real people drinking cold beer, eating hot dogs and hamburgers, sitting in the sun (or shade for those that got there early enough to get into the Grand Stands. Next year!) The people are friendly and it just seems like a step back in time.

This weekend was the 2 Bear Marathon. MA was the race director, so of course, I had to help out. Even if I wanted to run, I could not. But what a great excuse not to anyway. The race went off without a hitch, there was a nice moment of silence for those who passed away ten years ago in that horrific incident in NYC, and for the firemen who bravely charged in while others desperately ran out. Man, have you ever asked yourself, if that were you, could you have done that? I am just not sure myself.

Since I was on the race section that is on the new Whitefish Trail, my group of marshalls and I got to ride to our posts, and when the last of the runners had passed, well, what else could we do but ride our bikes a bit more. It made the early hours and loss of a valuable Sunday morning sleep in worth it, and by noon we were drinking well deserved beer.

So now the sun is fading each day a bit earlier, days are sure to get cooler, and the last of the summer garden crops will have to be harvested. And when all that is done, and the wood is put up, it just might be time for Winter!!!!

I for one, am ready to ski.